Recently, the news that the network subsidy for new energy vehicles will advance ahead in 2018 has swept through the entire automobile circle, causing an “earthquake†in the industry, and even the stocks of the automotive stocks plunged. Among them, the lithium battery segment and passenger car segment were significantly affected, Changyuan Group, Salt Lake shares, leading intelligence, Jinlong Auto and other stocks fell below the threshold, Yutong Bus fell 7.19%, BYD fell 5.94%, showing that subsidies for early retreat for car companies and even The impact of the industry is great.
Subsequently, the media broke the news that the Ministry of Finance recently convened four ministries and commissions, experts in associations, and representatives of major companies to conduct small-scale discussions on the directions and plans for the adjustment of new energy vehicle subsidies in 2018, and exposed some discussions on the adjustment of subsidies. This news also caused the rumors of subsidies to “fall ahead†in 2018.
Who will die if the subsidy falls?
The discussion paper on the adjustment direction of subsidies for online mad pass has been involved in new energy passenger vehicles, new energy buses, and new energy special vehicles. Among them, the most interesting thing is that new energy passenger cars will be re-divided by the driving mileage. Sub-files are adjusted from 3 to 5, and the subdivisions are more detailed. In addition, the threshold for driving miles increased to 150 kilometers, that is, from the original 100-150 kilometers of 20,000 yuan subsidies will be canceled, 150-200 kilometers of subsidies will also be reduced from 36,000 to 20,000 yuan.
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Substantial reduction or cancellation of subsidies will have any impact on the industry?
Judging from the micro-electric vehicles currently on the market, the driving range of most models is within 200 kilometers, of which 150-200 kilometers are mostly in the range. Yin Chengliang, deputy dean of the Automotive Engineering Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University, said that if the adjustment policies of the Internet are true, there is no doubt that small and micro electric vehicles under 150 kilometers will be hit hard and the number of relevant models will be drastically reduced.
In addition, 150-200 kilometers of small-sized electric vehicles will also face subsidies halved, the same degree of attack can not be ignored.
Since the beginning of this year, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles have achieved monthly growth of 9 months in a month. The sales volume in October reached 65,000 units, which is an increase of 07,000 units from the previous month, an increase of 102% year-on-year. Among them, micro-electric vehicles continue to maintain a strong, the total proportion accounted for a large proportion. According to the data of October of this year, BAIC EC Series, Zhidou D2, and Jianghuai iEV6S/E respectively ranked 11st, 3rd, and 11th with 11315, 4502, and 2861. All of them were A00 electric vehicles, and the popularity of small electric vehicles The degree is evident.
A large part of the reason for the popularity of small and micro electric vehicles in the market is the low price. If subsidies in this area are reduced or cancelled, sales will be affected. Yin Chengliang further pointed out that not only the impact on enterprises will be very obvious, but also the overall impact on new energy vehicles cannot be overlooked. The index of the total amount of new energy passenger vehicles driven by policies will be difficult to complete. In addition, the value of this type of vehicle in the double-integration policy is not high, and in the case of a substantial drop in subsidies, small and micro electric vehicles are likely to be abandoned by car companies.
Threshold to improve the impact of geometry?
According to the online discussion paper, the first is that the subsidy limit is divided more by driving range, subsidy is reduced for low driving mileage, and subsidy is increased for high continuation mileage. The subsidy threshold for battery energy density increased from 90Wh/kg to 95Wh/kg. Or the threshold is unchanged and the subsidy coefficient has decreased.
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In addition, for new energy buses, the maximum allowance for bicycle subsidies has been adjusted to no more than 180,000 yuan, and the maximum amount of subsidies for national subsidies and land subsidies has been reduced to 270,000 yuan.
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In this regard, Yin Chengliang said that the battery is one of the most important parts of new energy buses. According to the content of the discussion paper, the cost of subsidizing and connecting batteries is not enough. In contrast, fuel buses are cheaper. With such adjustments, there is a good chance that prices will be inverted.
According to the subsidy programs announced by several ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the subsidy of new energy vehicles will be reduced by 20% from 2016 to 2018 on the basis of 2016, and the subsidy standard of 2019-2020 will decrease by 40% on the basis of 2016. In the latest rumors, the subsidy falling standards in 2019 will be implemented in advance in 2018.
Yin Chengliang stated that it is in favor of implementing the system of subsidy and slope reduction for new energy vehicles, but he hopes that there will be policy continuity in the retreat. The timing of the adjustments made to production companies, and the sudden withdrawal policy, will break the rhythm of the company's original R&D, production, and promotion, and make the company at a loss.
Judging from the signals released by the discussion paper, the most important adjustment of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2018 is to put forward higher technical requirements for new energy batteries. The state adjusted the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles and raised the threshold for new energy vehicles, which will help accelerate the promotion of the survival of the fittest and the development of competition for technology.
According to an industry insider who declined to be named, the subsidy policy in 2018 is under discussion. The actual policy will also revise the discussion draft, and the final policy may need to be revised.
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