Today, no one dares to look to the future, because even those who stand on the forefront of science and technology, those who study future science, can not imagine the shape and function of the future of the car. Take the entertainment system in the car. In the 1980s, the car was used to listen to music in a tape cassette. Later, a CD appeared. And now a small USB interface has replaced them all.
The 3D technology, the head-up display technology, and the debut of VR technology will make the future scenes in the car full of uncertainties. Perhaps we will drive cars in the future. All road conditions, traffic and entertainment information in the car will be displayed on the front windshield. We paid for goods in the car and the courier went directly to the car. The car really became a mobile home.
With regard to the automotive industry revolution, many industry experts have analyzed and thought about it. The first industrial revolution in which coal was the main energy source and the second industrial revolution represented by petroleum and internal combustion engines all brought a qualitative leap to the development of the automobile at that time. The third industrial revolution is now automated production based on the popularization of the Internet.
The third industrial revolution is still in its infancy and is still spreading and spreading throughout the world. And in the course of development, new energy, autopilot, and other automotive-related keywords have become hot topics in recent years.
However, some scholars have analyzed that the addition of computers and information and communication technologies has not brought about a substantial increase in the production of automobiles. Why is this?
After the 1980s, with the popularization of portable computer technology, factories and offices all over the world began to equip computers and became an upsurge of the time. Robert Solow, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, said that after the popularity of computers and networks, the use of information technology, in terms of automobile production, although it is more convenient in terms of technology research and development and production management, the productivity of its cars is not much. s help. Of course, many people do not agree with this point of view.
After Robert Solow published his research results, the famous "Solo Paradox". Also known as productivity paradox. In the late 1980s, the American scholar, Strassman, investigated 292 companies and found a strange phenomenon. There was no clear correlation between these companies' IT investment and return on investment (ROI).
Robert Solow, an economist who won the Nobel Prize in 1987, called this phenomenon “productivity paradoxâ€: “We see computers everywhere, but we cannot see computers in terms of productivity statistics (Computers everywhere except in the productivity statistics.) )". The Solow paradox means that “the IT industry is omnipresent, and its promotion of productivity is minimalâ€.
From 1947 to 1983, the average labor productivity in the United States was 2.8%. However, after large-scale use of computer computers from 2000 to 2007, labor productivity in the United States dropped to 2.6% on average. In the period from 2007 to 2014 when the smart phone revolution came, the labor productivity in the United States dropped to 1.3%. Therefore, in the United States, "technology uselessness" is very rampant, and there are more and more people believe in Solow's paradox.
During the past 10 years, technological advancement and innovation have brought about a geometric growth in investment, and labor production and demand worldwide have exhibited unprecedented cooperation. When technology has developed to a certain degree, the issue of efficiency paradoxes has been mentioned again, causing economic panic, which seems to be a difficult mystery in economics.
So far, the most authoritative of the fourth industrial revolution is the book "The Fourth Industrial Revolution" from the founder of the Davos Economic Forum, Klaus Schwab, which presents an overview of artificial intelligence and robotics. New technologies such as Internet of Things, self-driving cars, 3D printing, blockchain, and biotechnology, together constitute the "fourth industrial revolution." At the same time, the theme of Davos in the summer of 2016 was also selected as the "fourth industrial revolution - the power of transformation."
At the beginning of the 20th century, Henry Ford's first production line production method, the efficiency of automobile production was improved, and the production cost was greatly reduced. And each worker is only responsible for his own part, and the technical requirements for skilled workers are also reduced. If Henry Ford's assembly line production is regarded as one of the greatest revolutions in the automotive industry in the past, the future automobile industry revolution must be a self-driving car.
Once a lot of foreign auto analysts believe that today's era of automotive electronics equipment, autopilot is a development trend, and the Chinese market is the most important position in the global auto market.
Why do you say this way? First of all, with respect to autopilot, the most eye-catching is the Google driverless car, but it will be very difficult to achieve the final form of Google’s driverless car, and the road to commercialization is very far away. As a result, many highly self-driving cars were first produced by manufacturers. However, driverlessness will be the final form.
Because social capital will first invest in the most efficient enterprises, and 90% of the current traffic accidents are caused by human factors after the driverless cars become popular. Driverless cars will completely solve traffic accidents caused by human factors and make the whole society The travel efficiency has been improved.
However, if you want to reach the ultimate shape, it will not be the auto manufacturer's own solution. Need the government to lead, the joint efforts of the whole society, the shape of the car will not even be what we see now, the manufacture of cars is no longer the manufacturers and parts suppliers can say it, and I am afraid that all walks of life in society will Integrate into automobile manufacturing and transportation life.
The second change comes from thinking about the exhaustion of oil. 20 At the end of the actual period, some scholars analyzed that oil resources will be depleted in 2030. The "oil crisis" was also mentioned several times. When the oil on earth is depleted, traditional internal combustion engines will naturally disappear. However, all the experts' predictions are wrong. Because many new oil fields have been discovered on the earth, and many are in the deep sea, we do not know how much oil is on earth and how many years it can be produced.
Therefore, the influence of oil giants is declining. ExxonMobil of the US is reducing the refining industry and investing in other industries. As a result, the quality of gasoline used by consumers is very high. Correspondingly, harmful gases emitted by automobiles will increase, which will be a big burden for automobile manufacturers.
In order to reduce harmful gases, manufacturers will continue to conduct various technological research and development. The development of these devices requires the use of various rare metals, such as rare earths. Of course, products made from rare earth resources will also be used in smart phones, and 95% of the world's rare earth resources are in China. Therefore, China will play a more important role in the world in the future.
The third serious problem is the global warming. The exhaust gas emitted by automobiles is now one of the causes of global warming. The standards for exhaust emissions in various countries are becoming increasingly stringent, and they will impose a significant burden on automobile manufacturers. Nowadays, 40% of global electricity comes from coal, 30% from natural gas and 6% from petroleum. In other words, 75% of global electricity production also generates carbon dioxide, which is the cause of global warming.
The technology development in the digital age is now focusing on motion recognition, speech recognition, touch screens, head-up display, entertainment, and onboard information service systems. Around 2030, artificial intelligence technology will be very mature. The dialogue between people and cars will be like a human-to-human dialogue, achieving higher recognition rates and faster response times.
In 10 to 20 years, self-driving cars will be truly commercialized. Demand for cars will increase at that time, and car sales will be proportional to population growth. Human social production and living will be more convenient. Innovations by US companies such as Google will maintain their advantages in the new round of industrial revolution.
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