In April, the heavy-duty truck market rebounded. Heavy-duty trucks such as Dongfeng Motor, Foton Motors, China National Heavy Duty Truck, and FAW Group saw significant growth. However, due to uncertainties in the implementation time of the heavy truck's national IV emission standards, the plan for the production scheduling of some vehicle companies fluctuates, and orders for advance consumption begin to appear. Analysts expect heavy-duty trucks to hardly reach April sales in May, but they will continue to pick up from the same period last year.
At the same time, Daimler and Iveco have started new import truck business in China, starting the growth of high-end heavy truck market, or will present a new market structure.
The sluggish heavy truck market finally showed signs of recovery. According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April this year, the heavy-duty truck market saw its first growth in 15 months, an increase of up to 30% year-on-year. However, under the background of the apparent recovery of the macroeconomic environment, the challenges faced by the heavy-duty truck market still exist, and it is difficult to dissipate the downside.
During the market survey, the reporter found that due to the imminent implementation of the National IV Standard, which stimulated the early release of consumer demand, the year-on-year increase in sales in April was mainly due to the delivery of inventory orders in January and February of this year.
However, this "warming up" phenomenon may be about to change. With the approaching of the scheduled implementation time on July 1st, specific implementation rules related to the National IV standard have yet to be announced. More and more manufacturers are beginning to shrink their schedules for production. Between the dilemma. It is precisely because of this, resulting in some areas of the heavy truck terminal market there is a "no car can be sold" phenomenon, and even regional dealers can not easily accept orders.
It is because of the many non-market factors that have been incorporated that the “recovery of the heavy truck market†remains to be explored.
New standards stimulate consumer early release
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, a total of 81,549 vehicles were sold in the heavy-duty truck industry in April, a year-on-year increase of 30%. Driven by continued growth in March and April, cumulative sales of the heavy-duty truck market in the first four months of the year totaled about 251,100 vehicles. Although the year-on-year decrease was 5.9%, the decline further narrowed.
Judging from the heavy truck industry, Dongfeng, FAW Jiefang and China National Heavy Duty Truck ranked the top three in terms of sales volume of 16,000, 13,800 and 13,000 vehicles, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 21%, 53% and 32% respectively.
At the same time, the engine companies closely related to the heavy truck industry also showed positive trends. Weichai Power released a quarterly report showing that in the first quarter of 2013, the company’s net profit was 813 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21%, and the decline was noticeably narrower than last year. As a result, a number of securities firms have issued research reports that the heavy truck market is beginning to pick up.
"With reference to the laws of the past countries II or III (emission standards), before the implementation of the new emission standards, will experience an early stage of heavy volume." An auto analyst of Guojin Securities told reporters that an important factor in rising sales, It is due to the imminent implementation of the National IV standard and the fact that the two national IV emission standards have been postponed. It is unlikely that the IV will be postponed again.
Prior to this, Shanghai had taken the lead in launching the "National IV" "process." Since July 1, 2013, all diesel vehicles and heavy-duty gasoline vehicles registered with vehicle number plates in Shanghai must have their air pollutant emissions reach the fourth stage of the country. Emission limit requirements.
Wait-and-see mood affects vendor scheduling
A survey by the reporter found that behind the sharp increase in sales of heavy trucks in April, many non-market factors are still being incorporated, and the pessimism in the heavy truck market is still brewing.
A dealer in the southwest region told reporters that the increase in sales in April was mainly reflected in the centralized delivery of inventory orders, not the market recovery in the current month. “Generally, it takes at least two months from the time of placing an order to the delivery of a vehicle. The delivery of vehicles was mainly from orders received in January and February."
A heavy truck dealer in East China told reporters that, apart from the factors of early release of consumption before the emission standards were upgraded, another factor in the increase in sales was the current state’s strict management of overload behavior. “This year’s management of overloaded behavior Particularly strict, if the overload phenomenon is found 3 times, the driver's license will be revoked. In the current market environment where the heavy truck driver resources are scarce, the customer must choose to increase the number of vehicle purchases to avoid overloading.
It is understood that the dealer group's sales in the first four months of this year's heavy truck rose nearly 40% year-on-year, of which nearly half of the increase was due to "buy expansion."
In addition, the national IV emission standards to be implemented on July 1 this year will still affect the production plans of automakers to a large extent. However, as the specific implementation plan has not yet been introduced, manufacturers are worried about the production of national III models can not be registered, on the other hand, they are watching the implementation of national IV emission standards.
It is precisely because of this, the reporter learned from the heavy truck dealers in many places, the current terminal market orders have been declining. A truck dealer in Chengdu explained to the reporter: “If no specific penalty measures were introduced, no one would want to produce a higher-cost model and lose a competitive advantage in terms of selling price.†It is understood that, in general, one The price of the National IV vehicle is higher than that of the National III by 15,000 to 20,000 yuan.
In the current state of "dilemma" between the State III and State IV models, most manufacturers have opted for a "constrained incident" in the contraction scheduling scheme, and such measures have directly caused the terminal distributors to "have no cars to sell."
The dealers said frankly: “Now we are not afraid to engage in promotional sales, and even if there are orders for the National III models, we dare not pick them up.†Another Shanghai dealer told reporters, “Although the National IV standard is already in Shanghai, Landing, but there are only a few of the products currently announced by the manufacturers that have been notified by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology."
What is more disturbing is that in the heavy truck market, there are also rumors that the implementation time of the National IV emission standard will be postponed again. The above-mentioned heavy truck dealers in East China told reporters that, excluding the “early release of consumption†factors on the eve of the implementation of the National IV emission standards, the heavy truck market remained cold in the second half of the year despite the fact that the macroeconomic environment did not appear to be clearly favorable. However, the market performance has improved compared to the same period last year.
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