After the opening on May 2, due to the continued weakness in downstream demand and the restart of some of the devices, the increase in the previous market was relatively large, and the downstream cargo pick-up slowed. The mainland methanol market began to fall. In the port market, due to the downturn of downstream buyers' intentions, inventory pressure remained high and market transactions continued to be light.
From May 2nd to July 7th, prices rose by 20-150 yuan/ton from April 30. Among them, Shandong fell 90-120 yuan/ton to RMB/ton to 2200 to 2260 yuan/ton on April 30; Hebei's mainstream fell 100 yuan/ton to 2050 to 2150 yuan/ton; Shanxi fell 100 yuan/ton to 2000- 2100 yuan/ton; Northwest high-end fell 50 yuan/ton to 1750-2100 yuan/ton; Henan low-end fell 150 yuan/ton to 2070-2300 yuan/ton; East China port fell 50 yuan/ton to 2240-2350 yuan/ton ; South China port fell 30 yuan / ton to 2330-2350 yuan / ton; Northeast 1750-1900 yuan / ton; southwest fell 50 yuan / ton to 2200-2300 yuan / ton.
Adverse factors: 1, the mainland's pre-maintenance equipment is gradually restored, the latter will increase supply, imports are also concentrated in Hong Kong, the domestic supply of methanol pressure is still obvious; 2, dimethyl ether due to shrinking profits, the national start less than 30%, And demand continued to weaken in the later period. The demand for formaldehyde still has no real improvement; 3. Coastal port inventories remain high, with domestic social inventory of 700,000 tons to 800,000 tons; 4. In the second half of the year, there will be a total of 3.96 million tons/year of four new methanol plants put into commercial operation. The new production will be mainly sold in the Asian market.
Good factors: 1. High price of coal and natural gas, cost pressures of domestic methanol manufacturers still exist; 2. Iranian equipment planned to be overhauled in May-June, while Saudi Arabia’s shipment plan for China’s shipment in April is zero, and it is expected to enter domestic market after May. The amount of imported methanol may decrease.
In summary, parking facilities in the north are gradually recovering, and market supply will increase in the later period. However, demand in the later period is still bearish: Domestic formaldehyde prices have been increasing passively in the early stage, but in the case of downstream wood-based panel mills, the purchase price of formaldehyde has been significantly reduced when the price of their products has risen. In the middle or late April, the costs have been higher and downstream demand Persistent sluggishness has affected the overall operating rate of domestic dimethyl ether, which is currently less than 30%, in the context of a compressed profit margin. Therefore, in the context of persistently weak demand and ample supply, the domestic methanol market will remain weak in the latter part of the period, and local regions may still fall back.
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